What is Facebook Prophet based on?

At its core, the Prophet procedure is an additive regression model with four main components: A piecewise linear or logistic growth curve trend. Prophet automatically detects changes in trends by selecting changepoints from the data. A yearly seasonal component modeled using Fourier series .

Prophet is a forecasting procedure implemented in R and Python . It is fast and provides completely automated forecasts that can be tuned by hand by data scientists and analysts. … Prophet is open source software released by Facebook’s Core Data Science team. It is available for download on CRAN and PyPI.

Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data.

Forecasting Growth By default, Prophet uses a linear model for its forecast . When forecasting growth, there is usually some maximum achievable point: total market size, total population size, etc. This is called the carrying capacity, and the forecast should saturate at this point.