Prophet prediction output

prior. scale : Parameter modulating the strength of the holiday components model, unless overridden in the holidays input . Follow this answer to receive notifications.

Prophet estimates the uncertainty intervals using Monte Carlo simulation . The “uncertainty_samples” parameter controls the simulation. It is the number of samples used to estimate the uncertainty interval (by default 1000).

Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects . It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data.

Prophet includes functionality for time series cross validation to measure forecast error using historical data. This is done by selecting cutoff points in the history , and for each of them fitting the model using data only up to that cutoff point. We can then compare the forecasted values to the actual values.