Prophet formula

The software is good for “the business forecast tasks we have encountered at Facebook” and that, according to the site, means hourly, daily or weekly observations with strong multiple seasonalities. In addition, Prophet is designed to deal with holidays known in advance, missing observations and large outliers.

At its core, the Prophet procedure is an additive regression model with four main components: A piecewise linear or logistic growth curve trend . Prophet automatically detects changes in trends by selecting changepoints from the data. A yearly seasonal component modeled using Fourier series.

What is Facebook Prophet and how does it work? Facebook Prophet is an open-source algorithm for generating time-series models that uses a few old ideas with some new twists . It is particularly good at modeling time series that have multiple seasonalities and doesn’t face some of the above drawbacks of other algorithms.19 Şub 2021

The Prophet algorithm is an additive model , which means that it detects the following trend and seasonality from the data first, then combine them together to get the forecasted values.