How does probabilistic forecasting work?

Probabilistic forecasting is a technique for weather forecasting that relies on different methods to establish an event occurrence/magnitude probability . This differs substantially from giving a definite information on the occurrence/magnitude (or not) of the same event, technique used in deterministic forecasting.

One such method, which deals with time based data is Time Series Modeling. As the name suggests, it involves working on time (years, days, hours, minutes) based data, to derive hidden insights to make informed decision making . Time series models are very useful models when you have serially correlated data.

Probabilistic modeling is a statistical technique used to take into account the impact of random events or actions in predicting the potential occurrence of future outcomes .

Probabilistic modeling, from the perspective of probability assessment, establishes a probability density model for the output or error of the prediction object , and has the ability to simulate various possibilities and probability of occurrence.