ARIMA parameters

An autoregressive integrated moving average, or ARIMA, is a statistical analysis model that uses time series data to either better understand the data set or to predict future trends .

You will be using the auto_arima function in Python, which automatically discovers the optimal order for an ARIMA model. In simple terms, the function will automatically determine the parameters p , d ‘, and q of the ARIMA model.

The model for which the values of criteria are smallest is considered as the best model. Hence, ARIMA (2, 1, and 2) is found as the best model for forecasting the SPL data series .